Never Apologize, Never Explain 2021-22

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This page describes the methodology for this year's TBRW? Predictions.  As always, if you catch an error please contact me.

This season we are just repeating the 2020-21 predictions because we have no useful data for last season and, hey, I did the work -- might as well use it. For our purposes, the 2020-21 season did not happen.

RS

RS is each team's points in the prior ECAC regular season:

RS  
Brown 21  
Clarkson 28  
Colgate 17  
Cornell 30  
Dartmouth 23  
Harvard 28  
Princeton 18  
Quinnipiac 30  
RPI 16  
SLU 8  
Union 22  
Yale 23  

PS

PS is the number of upset (lower seed) advances (+1) or eliminations (-1) in the previous season's ECAC tournament.  The consolation game is ignored.

The upsets in the last season's ECAC tournament were:

PS  
Brown +1  
Clarkson +1  
Colgate 0  
Cornell -1  
Dartmouth 0  
Harvard 0  
Princeton 0  
Quinnipiac -1  
RPI 0  
SLU 0  
Union 0  
Yale 0  

 

Imp

Imp is the difference in points gained in the second half (games 12-22) minus the first half (games 1-11) of the prior ECAC regular season, divided by 2, rounded down.  A positive Imp indicates the team had a better second half:

Pts 2nd 1st Diff Imp  
Brown 21 12 9 +3 +1  
Clarkson 28 14 14 0 0  
Colgate 17 9 8 +1 0  
Cornell 30 13 17 -4 -2  
Dartmouth 23 10 13 -3 -1  
Harvard 28 18 10 +8 +4  
Princeton 18 9 9 0 0  
Quinnipiac 30 15 15 0 0  
RPI 16 8 8 0 0  
SLU 8 5 3 +2 +1  
Union 22 11 11 0 0  
Yale 23 8 15 -7 -3  

 

RP%: Returning Points Percentage

The returning points ratio is the percentage of prior year's points not lost to graduation or early departure.  A player who left during the prior year is counted as a departure. The following non-seniors are known not to be returning:

Clarkson Nico Sturm 45 pts
Clarkson Jake Kielly 1 pt
Dartmouth Charley Michalowski 0 pts
Harvard Adam Fox 48 pts
Harvard Josh Marino 11 pts
Quinnipiac Borgan Rafferty 24 pts
Quinnipiac Andrew Shortridge 3 pts
Union Liam Morgan 26 pts

 

RP% = Points Returning / Total Points from Prior Season

  RP%  
Brown .7179  
Clarkson .7278  
Colgate .8255  
Cornell .7211  
Dartmouth .7210  
Harvard .6711  
Princeton .4367  
Quinnipiac .6226  
RPI .8883  
SLU .8867  
Union .4829  
Yale .6991  

Backup data: here

RA: Returning Awardees

Returning Awardees is the net return (or loss) of ECAC First Team, POTY, and ROTY awards.  The potential repetition of a player (e.g., First Team and POTY) is intentional to allow for the impact of unusually talented players.

The prior ECAC awardees were:

Award Name Team Status
ECAC F Barron Cornell Return
ECAC F Sturm Clarkson Depart
ECAC F Snively Yale Depart
ECAC F Kuffner Princeton Depart
ECAC D Fox Harvard Depart
ECAC D Priskie Quinnipiac Depart
ECAC G Shortridge Quinnipiac Depart
POTY Fox Harvard Depart
ROTY Dornbach Harvard Return

The calculation: add one point for each returning awardee while subtracting one for each departure:

  Return Depart RA  
Brown 0 0 0  
Clarkson 0 1 -1  
Colgate 0 0 0  
Cornell 1 0 +1  
Dartmouth 0 0 0  
Harvard 1 2 -1  
Princeton 0 1 -1  
Quinnipiac 0 2 -2  
RPI 0 0 0  
SLU 0 0 0  
Union 0 0 0  
Yale 0 1 -1  

 

Avg10

Avg10 measures traditional program strength, by taking the team's mean number of Points over the prior 10 seasons.

Brn Clk Cgt Cor Drt Hvd Prn Qpc RPI SLU Uni Yal  
2010 16 11 26 31 17 17 18 22 23 23 28 32  
2011 18 19 11 24 26 15 24 19 24 13 36 35  
2012 14 22 23 30 19 25 16 23 17 21 32 22  
2013 20 19 15 19 22 14 20 37 27 22 24 25  
2014 17 24 29 24 16 16 8 28 21 18 37 24  
2015 13 19 26 22 26 25 6 35 18 29 17 28  
2016 12 23 14 22 22 28 9 37 23 25 18 31  
2017 7 23 15 31 16 34 19 27 12 28 34 18  
2018 15 29 23 36 23 25 22 20 10 7 33 21  
2019 21 28 17 30 23 28 18 30 16 8 22 23  
   
Pts 153 217 199 269 210 227 160 278 191 194 281 259  
Avg10 15.3 21.7 19.9 26.9 21.0 22.7 16.0 27.8 19.1 19.4 28.1 25.9  

 

Summary:

Avg10  
Brown 15.3  
Clarkson 21.7  
Colgate 19.9  
Cornell 26.9  
Dartmouth 21.0  
Harvard 22.7  
Princeton 16.0  
Quinnipiac 27.8  
RPI 19.1  
SLU 19.4  
Union 28.1  
Yale 25.9  

 

Putting it All Together

Now we put everything together to predict the final standings.  This is a function of both the strength of returning players and an estimate of the strength of the new players.

The Past

Firstly, we want a measure of total returning strength, both the quality of the prior roster and its quantity -- the percentage of that roster returning.

Prior, the quality, is the sum of RS, PS, Imp, and RA.

RP%,  the quantity, is simply carried down from above.

Past, the relative measure of returning strength, is the product of Prior and RP%.

RS PS Imp Aw Prior RP% Past  
Brown 21 +1 +1 0 23 .7179 16.5117  
Clarkson 28 +1 0 -1 28 .7278 20.3784  
Colgate 17 0 0 0 17 .8255 14.0335  
Cornell 30 -1 -2 +1 28 .7211 20.1908  
Dartmouth 23 0 -1 0 22 .7210 15.8620  
Harvard 28 0 +4 -1 31 .6711 20.8041  
Princeton 18 0 0 -1 17 .4367 7.4239  
Quinnipiac 30 -1 0 -2 27 .6226 16.8102  
RPI 16 0 0 0 16 .8883 14.2128  
SLU 8 0 +1 0 9 .8867 7.9803  
Union 22 0 0 0 22 .4829 10.6238  
Yale 23 0 -3 -1 19 .6991 13.2829  

 

The Future

Secondly, we want to make the same two estimates for the incoming players: their quality and quantity.

Avg10 above, carried down.

Inc%, the estimate of quantity, is simply 1 - RP%.

Fut, the relative estimate of incoming strength, is the product of Avg10 and Inc%.

 

Avg10 Inc% Fut  
Brown 15.3 .2821 4.3161  
Clarkson 21.7 .2722 5.9067  
Colgate 19.9 .1745 3.4726  
Cornell 26.9 .2789 7.5024  
Dartmouth 21.0 .2790 5.8590  
Harvard 22.7 .3289 7.4660  
Princeton 16.0 .5633 9.0128  
Quinnipiac 27.8 .3774 10.4917  
RPI 19.1 .1117 2.1335  
SLU 19.4 .1133 2.1980  
Union 28.1 .5171 14.5305  
Yale 25.9 .3009 7.7933  

 

Conclusion

All that's left to do is add Past and Fut together (Net), normalize so teams will have a mean of 22 points (Norm = 22 - mean of Net), yielding predicted RS (Nieu), rounded to Pts and the ECAC standing (Pred).

Total:

Past Fut Net Norm Nieu Pts Pred  
Brown 16.5117 4.3161 20.8278 +.4336 21.2614 21 8  
Clarkson 20.3784 5.9067 26.2851 +.4336 26.7187 27 4  
Colgate 14.0335 3.4726 17.5060 +.4336 17.9396 18 9  
Cornell 20.1908 7.5024 27.6932 +.4336 28.1268 28 2  
Dartmouth 15.8620 5.8590 21.7210 +.4336 22.1546 22 6  
Harvard 20.8041 7.4660 28.2701 +.4336 28.7037 29 1  
Princeton 7.4239 9.0128 16.4367 +.4336 16.8706 17 10  
Quinnipiac 16.8102 10.4917 27.3019 +.4336 27.7355 28 3  
RPI 14.2128 2.1335 16.3462 +.4336 16.7798 17 11  
SLU 7.9803 2.1980 10.1783 +.4336 10.6119 11 12  
Union 10.6238 14.5305 25.1543 +.4336 25.5879 25 5  
Yale 13.2829 7.7933 21.0762 +.4336 21.5098 21 7