Never Apologize, Never Explain 2018-19

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This page describes the methodology for this year's TBRW? Predictions.  As always, if you catch an error please contact the humble author.

RS

RS is each team's points in the prior ECAC regular season:

RS  
Brown 15  
Clarkson 29  
Colgate 23  
Cornell 36  
Dartmouth 23  
Harvard 25  
Princeton 22  
Quinnipiac 20  
RPI 10  
SLU 7  
Union 33  
Yale 21  

PS

PS is the number of upset (lower seed) advances (+1) or eliminations (-1) in the previous season's ECAC tournament.  The consolation game is ignored.

The upsets in the last season's ECAC tournament were:

PS  
Brown 0  
Clarkson -1  
Colgate 0  
Cornell -1  
Dartmouth 0  
Harvard 0  
Princeton +3  
Quinnipiac +1  
RPI 0  
SLU 0  
Union -1  
Yale -1  

 

Imp

Imp is the difference in points gained in the second half (games 12-22) minus the first half (games 1-11) of the prior ECAC regular season, divided by 2, rounded down.  A positive Imp indicates the team had a better second half:

Pts 2nd 1st Diff Imp  
Brown 15 7 8 1 0  
Clarkson 29 9 20 -11 -5  
Colgate 23 10 13 -3 -1  
Cornell 36 17 19 -2 -1  
Dartmouth 23 14 9 5 2  
Harvard 25 10 15 -5 -2  
Princeton 22 15 7 8 4  
Quinnipiac 20 11 9 2 1  
RPI 10 4 6 -2 -1  
SLU 7 6 1 5 2  
Union 33 19 14 5 2  
Yale 21 12 9 3 1  

 

RP%: Returning Points Percentage

The returning points ratio is simply the percentage of prior years points not lost to graduation or early departure.  A player who left during the prior year is counted as a departure.

The following non-seniors with at least 1 point and/or goalies are known to be not returning:

 RP% = Points Returning / Total Points from Prior Season

  Total Sr Early Return RP%  
Brown 186 59 0 127 .6828  
Clarkson 340 64 72 204 .6000  
Colgate 233 25 0 208 .8927  
Cornell 273 58 26 189 .6923  
Dartmouth 229 37 0 192 .8394  
Harvard 278 29 43 206 .7410  
Princeton 368 99 0 269 .7310  
Quinnipiac 283 49 0 234 .8269  
RPI 199 46 52 101 .5075  
SLU 214 74 0 140 .6542  
Union 312 58 0 254 .8141  
Yale 213 27 0 186 .8732  

 

RA: Returning Awardees

Returning Awardees is the net return (or loss) of ECAC First Team, POTY, and ROTY awards.  The potential repetition of a player (e.g., First Team and POTY) is intentional to allow for the impact of unusually talented players.

The prior ECAC awardees were:

Award Name Team Status
ECAC F Donato Harvard Depart
ECAC F Rempal Clarkson Depart
ECAC F Verroneau Princeton Return
ECAC D Summers Clarkson Depart
ECAC D Fox Harvard Return
ECAC G Galajda Cornell Return
POTY Donato Harvard Depart
ROTY Galajda Cornell Return

The calculation: add one point for each returning awardee while subtracting one for each departure:

  Return Depart RA  
Brown 0 0 0  
Clarkson 0 2 -2  
Colgate 0 0 0  
Cornell 2 0 +2  
Dartmouth 0 0 0  
Harvard 1 2 -1  
Princeton 1 0 +1  
Quinnipiac 0 0 0  
RPI 0 0 0  
SLU 0 0 0  
Union 0 0 0  
Yale 0 0 0  

 

Avg10

Avg10 measures traditional program strength, by taking the team's mean number of Points over the prior 10 seasons.

Brn Clk Cgt Cor Drt Hvd Prn Qpc RPI SLU Uni Yal  
2009 10 20 17 29 24 24 28 21 13 26 20 32  
2010 16 11 26 31 17 17 18 22 23 23 28 32  
2011 18 19 11 24 26 15 24 19 24 13 36 35  
2012 14 22 23 30 19 25 16 23 17 21 32 22  
2013 20 19 15 19 22 14 20 37 27 22 24 25  
2014 17 24 29 24 16 16 8 28 21 18 37 24  
2015 13 19 26 22 26 25 6 35 18 29 17 28  
2016 12 23 14 22 22 28 9 37 23 25 18 31  
2017 7 23 15 31 16 34 19 27 12 28 34 18  
2018 15 29 23 36 23 25 22 20 10 7 33 21  
   
Pts 142 209 199 268 211 223 170 269 188 212 279 268  
Avg10 14.2 20.9 19.9 26.8 21.1 22.3 17.0 26.9 18.8 21.2 27.9 26.8  

 

Summary:

Avg10  
Brown 14.2  
Clarkson 20.9  
Colgate 19.9  
Cornell 26.8  
Dartmouth 21.1  
Harvard 22.3  
Princeton 17.0  
Quinnipiac 26.9  
RPI 18.8  
SLU 21.2  
Union 27.9  
Yale 26.8  

 

Putting it All Together

Now we put everything together to predict the final standings.  This is a function of both the strength of returning players and an estimate of the strength of the new players.

The Past

Firsty, we want a measure of total returning strength, both the quality of the prior roster and its quantity -- the percentage of that roster returning.

Prior, the quality is the sum of RS, PS, Imp, and RA.

RP%,  the quantity, is simply carried down from above.

Past, the relative measure of returning strength, is the product of Prior and RP%.

RS PS Imp Aw Prior RP% Past  
Brown 15 0 0 0 15 .6828 10.2420  
Clarkson 29 -1 -5 4 27 .6000 16.2000  
Colgate 23 0 -1 1 23 .8927 20.5321  
Cornell 36 -1 -1 0 34 .6923 23.5382  
Dartmouth 23 0 2 -2 23 .8384 19.2832  
Harvard 25 0 -2 2 25 .7410 18.5250  
Princeton 22 3 4 -1 28 .7310 20.4680  
Quinnipiac 20 1 1 0 22 .8269 18.1918  
RPI 10 0 -1 1 10 .5075 5.0750  
SLU 7 0 2 -2 7 .6542 4.5794  
Union 33 -1 2 -3 31 .8141 25.2371  
Yale 21 -1 1 -2 19 .8732 16.5908  

 

The Future

Secondly,  we want to make the same two estimates for the incoming player: their quality and quantity.

Avg10 above, carried down.

Inc%, the estimate of quantity, is simply 1 - RP%.

Fut, the relative estimate of incoming strength, is the product of Avg10 and Inc%.

 

Avg10 Inc% Fut  
Brown 14.2 .3172 4.5042  
Clarkson 20.9 .4000 8.3600  
Colgate 19.9 .1073 2.1353  
Cornell 26.8 .3077 8.2464  
Dartmouth 21.1 .1616 3.4098  
Harvard 22.3 .2590 5.7757  
Princeton 17.0 .2690 4.5730  
Quinnipiac 26.9 .1731 4.6564  
RPI 18.8 .4925 9.2590  
SLU 21.2 .3458 7.3310  
Union 27.9 .1859 5.1866  
Yale 26.8 .1268 3.3982  

 

Conclusion

All that's left to do is add Past and Fut together (Net), normalize so teams will have a mean of 22 points (Norm = 22 - mean of Net), yielding predicted RS (Nieu), rounded to Pts and the ECAC standing (Pred).

Total:

Past Fut Net Norm Nieu Pts Pred  
Brown 10.2420 4.5042 14.7462 -.1082 14.6381 15 10  
Clarkson 16.2000 8.3600 24.5600 -.1082 24.4518 24 4  
Colgate 20.5321 2.1353 22.6674 -.1082 22.5592 23 8  
Cornell 23.5382 8.2464 31.7846 -.1082 31.6764 32 1  
Dartmouth 19.2832 3.4098 22.6930 -.1082 22.5848 23 7  
Harvard 18.5250 5.7757 24.3007 -.1082 24.1925 24 5  
Princeton 20.4680 4.5730 25.0410 -.1082 24.9328 25 3  
Quinnipiac 18.1918 4.6564 22.8482 -.1082 22.7400 23 6  
RPI 5.0750 9.2590 12.0346 -.1082 14.2258 14 11  
SLU 4.5794 7.3310 11.9104 -.1082 11.8022 12 12  
Union 25.2371 5.1866 30.4237 -.1082 30.3155 30 2  
Yale 16.5908 3.3982 19.9890 -.1082 19.8809 20 9