The predictions use these metrics, described below:
Metric | Definition |
RS | Prior ECAC regular season |
PS | Prior ECAC post-season |
Imp | Second-half improvement |
PtsRet | Pct returning * |
Avg10 | Traditional program strength |
* metric modified from last year, as described below
RS is each team's points in the prior ECAC regular season:
RS | ||
Brown | 12 | |
Clarkson | 23 | |
Colgate | 14 | |
Cornell | 22 | |
Dartmouth | 22 | |
Harvard | 28 | |
Princeton | 9 | |
Quinnipiac | 37 | |
RPI | 23 | |
SLU | 25 | |
Union | 18 | |
Yale | 31 |
PS is the number of upset (lower seed) advances (+1) or eliminations (-1) in the previous season's ECAC tournament. The consolation game is ignored.
The upsets in the last season's ECAC tournament were:
PS | ||
Brown | 0 | |
Clarkson | 0 | |
Colgate | 0 | |
Cornell | 0 | |
Dartmouth | +1 | |
Harvard | 0 | |
Princeton | 0 | |
Quinnipiac | 0 | |
RPI | 0 | |
SLU | 0 | |
Union | 0 | |
Yale | -1 |
Imp is the difference in points gained in the second half (games 12-22) minus the first half (games 1-11) of the prior ECAC regular season, divided by 2 (and rounded down). A positive Imp indicates the team had a better second half:
Pts | 2nd ½ | 1st ½ | Diff | Imp | ||
Brown | 12 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | |
Clarkson | 23 | 16 | 7 | 9 | +4 | |
Colgate | 14 | 6 | 8 | -2 | -1 | |
Cornell | 22 | 8 | 14 | -6 | -3 | |
Dartmouth | 22 | 10 | 12 | -2 | -1 | |
Harvard | 28 | 15 | 13 | +2 | +1 | |
Princeton | 9 | 2 | 7 | -5 | -2 | |
Quinnipiac | 37 | 17 | 20 | -3 | -1 | |
RPI | 23 | 8 | 15 | -7 | -3 | |
SLU | 25 | 14 | 11 | +3 | +1 | |
Union | 18 | 12 | 6 | +6 | +3 | |
Yale | 31 | 18 | 13 | +5 | +2 |
The old figure, WRet, captured how much of last year's players' contribution returns (or has been lost to graduation or early departure).
This year we are using a radical departure from prior predictions. We are replacing the complex formula that was a function of forward, defense and goaltending with a very simple stasistic: the percentage of returning point scoring. For one thing, the old metric didn't seem to be doing a great job of calculating the fall-off due to graudating (or early departing) talent. The goaltending figure tended to overwhelm the other components. Also, the differentiations both into forward vs defense and top N of each introduced arbitrary cutoffs with relatively weeak theoretical justification.
The following players with eligibility remaining are not returning:
+ Jason Kasdorf, RPI, G, Jr
+ Christian Horn, SLU, F, Jr
+ Alex
Lyon, Yal, G, Jr
+ Devon Toews, Qpc, D, Jr
+ Sam Anas, Qpc, F, Jr
%Ret = Points Returning / Total Points
Total Pts | Lost | Return | %Ret | ||
Brown | 140 | 68 | 208 | .67 | |
Clarkson | 268 | 73 | 195 | .73 | |
Colgate | 253 | 122 | 131 | .52 | |
Cornell | 213 | 38 | 175 | .82 | |
Dartmouth | 257 | 106 | 151 | .59 | |
Harvard | 313 | 115 | 198 | .63 | |
Princeton | 151 | 20 | 131 | .87 | |
Quinnipiac | 430 | 177 | 253 | .59 | |
RPI | 264 | 74 | 190 | .72 | |
SLU | 293 | 90 | 203 | .69 | |
Union | 242 | 32 | 210 | .87 | |
Yale | 224 | 83 | 141 | .63 |
Avg10 measures traditional program strength, by taking the team's mean number of Points over the prior 10 seasons. This will be used to compute the expected Incoming factor.
Brn | Clk | Cgt | Cor | Drt | Hvd | Prn | Qpc | RPI | SLU | Uni | Yal | ||
2007 | 16 | 30 | 17 | 24 | 27 | 22 | 22 | 24 | 17 | 33 | 15 | 17 | |
2008 | 15 | 33 | 21 | 25 | 15 | 27 | 28 | 22 | 15 | 16 | 25 | 22 | |
2009 | 10 | 20 | 17 | 29 | 24 | 24 | 28 | 21 | 13 | 26 | 20 | 32 | |
2010 | 16 | 11 | 26 | 31 | 17 | 17 | 18 | 22 | 23 | 23 | 28 | 32 | |
2011 | 18 | 19 | 11 | 24 | 26 | 15 | 24 | 19 | 24 | 13 | 36 | 35 | |
2012 | 14 | 22 | 23 | 30 | 19 | 25 | 16 | 23 | 17 | 21 | 32 | 22 | |
2013 | 20 | 19 | 15 | 19 | 22 | 14 | 20 | 37 | 27 | 22 | 24 | 25 | |
2014 | 17 | 24 | 29 | 24 | 16 | 16 | 8 | 28 | 21 | 18 | 37 | 24 | |
2015 | 13 | 19 | 26 | 22 | 26 | 25 | 6 | 35 | 18 | 29 | 17 | 28 | |
2016 | 12 | 23 | 14 | 22 | 22 | 28 | 9 | 37 | 23 | 25 | 18 | 31 | |
Pts | 151 | 220 | 199 | 250 | 214 | 213 | 179 | 268 | 198 | 226 | 252 | 268 | |
Avg10 | 15.1 | 22.0 | 19.9 | 25.0 | 21.4 | 21.3 | 17.9 | 26.8 | 19.8 | 22.6 | 25.2 | 26.8 |
Summary:
Avg10 | ||
Brown | 15.10 | |
Clarkson | 22.00 | |
Colgate | 19.90 | |
Cornell | 25.00 | |
Dartmouth | 21.40 | |
Harvard | 21.30 | |
Princeton | 17.90 | |
Quinnipiac | 26.80 | |
RPI | 19.80 | |
SLU | 22.60 | |
Union | 25.20 | |
Yale | 26.80 |
From these independent metrics, we now generate several calculated metrics:
Metric | Name | Definition | Calculation |
Prior | "Prior Season" | Total of prior season metrics | RS + PS +Imp |
Ret | "Returning Value" | Portion of value returning | %Ret * Prior |
%Inc | "Percentage Incoming" | Pct of points to be replaced by incoming | 1 - %Ret |
Inc | "Incoming Value" | Portion of current value from incoming | %Inc * Avg10 |
Nieu | "New Predictor" | Sum of veteran and incoming factors | Ret + Inc |
Pred | "Prediction" | Predicted order of finish | Rank order of Nieu |
All but the last of these calculated metrics are just convenient conceptual groupings -- the final metric, Nieu, could be calculated directly from the independent metrics. But we'll sacrifice brevity for clarity of expression (and check our work) by spelling them out in the table below:
RS | PS | Imp | Prior | %Ret | Ret | Avg10 | %Inc | Inc | Nieu | Pred | ||
Brown | 12 | 0 | 0 | 12 | .67 | 8.04 | 15.10 | .33 | 4.98 | 13.02 | 11 | |
Clarkson | 23 | 0 | +4 | 27 | .73 | 19.71 | 22.00 | .27 | 5.94 | 25.65 | 4 | |
Colgate | 14 | 0 | -1 | 13 | .52 | 6.76 | 19.90 | .48 | 9.55 | 16.31 | 10 | |
Cornell | 22 | 0 | -3 | 19 | .82 | 15.58 | 25.00 | .18 | 4.50 | 20.08 | 8 | |
Dartmouth | 22 | +1 | -1 | 22 | .59 | 12.98 | 21.40 | .41 | 8.77 | 21.75 | 6 | |
Harvard | 28 | 0 | +1 | 29 | .63 | 18.27 | 21.30 | .37 | 7.89 | 26.16 | 3 | |
Princeton | 9 | 0 | -2 | 7 | .87 | 6.09 | 17.90 | .13 | 2.33 | 8.42 | 12 | |
Quinnipiac | 37 | 0 | -1 | 36 | .59 | 21.24 | 26.80 | .41 | 10.99 | 32.23 | 1 | |
RPI | 23 | 0 | -3 | 20 | .72 | 14.40 | 19.80 | .28 | 5.54 | 19.94 | 9 | |
SLU | 25 | 0 | +1 | 26 | .69 | 17.94 | 22.60 | .31 | 7.01 | 24.95 | 5 | |
Union | 18 | 0 | +3 | 21 | .87 | 18.27 | 25.20 | .13 | 3.28 | 21.55 | 7 | |
Yale | 31 | -1 | +2 | 32 | .63 | 20.16 | 26.80 | .37 | 9.92 | 30.08 | 2 |