Never Apologize, Never Explain 2015-16

The predictions use these metrics, described below:

Metric Definition
RS Prior ECAC regular season
PS Prior ECAC post-season
Imp Second-half improvement
WRet Returning strength
Avg10 Traditional program strength

 

The Metrics

RS

RS is each team's points in the prior ECAC regular season:

RS
Brown 13
Clarkson 19
Colgate 26
Cornell 22
Dartmouth 26
Harvard 25
Princeton 6
Quinnipiac 35
RPI 18
SLU 29
Union 17
Yale 28

PS

PS is the number of upset (lower seed) advances (+1) or eliminations (-1) in the previous season's ECAC tournament.  The consolation game is ignored.

The upsets in the last season's ECAC tournament were:

PS
Brown 0
Clarkson -1
Colgate 0
Cornell -1
Dartmouth 0
Harvard +3
Princeton 0
Quinnipiac -1
RPI +1
SLU -1
Union +1
Yale -1

 

Imp

Imp is the difference in points gained in the second half (games 12-22) minus the first half (games 1-11) of the prior ECAC regular season, divided by 2 (and rounded down).  A positive Imp indicates the team had a better second half:

Pts 2nd 1st Diff Imp
Brown 13 11 2 +9 +4
Clarkson 19 7 12 -5 -2
Colgate 26 12 14 -2 -1
Cornell 22 10 12 -2 -1
Dartmouth 26 18 8 +10 +5
Harvard 25 9 16 -7 -3
Princeton 6 4 2 +2 +1
Quinnipiac 35 17 18 -1 0
RPI 18 8 10 -2 -1
SLU 29 15 14 +1 0
Union 17 8 9 -1 0
Yale 28 15 13 +2 +1

 

WRet

WRet captures how much of last year's players' contribution returns (or has been lost to graduation or early departure).

First the returning strength of three subcomponents is calculated for the team's "significant" players, as defined here:

We then weight these numbers by their position's contribution to the team at full strength (3 forwards, 2 defensemen, and 1 goaltender), and multiply the result by 3 to approximate the dispersion from prior Returning Strength metrics:

WRet = (3*RetF + 2*RetD + RetG)/6

The team breakdowns of  Returning Players are shown below.

All of last year's significant seniors are assumed non-returning, unless otherwise noted.  The seniors from last season returning are:

The following significant players with eligibility remaining are not returning:

Backup Data:

Returning (Y) and Non-Returning (N) players by team by position.  Early departures in bold red:

RetF RetD RetG WRet
Brown 0.60 0.58 1.00 0.66
Ret 69 18 1869
Total 115 31 1869
1 23 N 13 N 1058 Y
2 23 Y 7 Y 773 Y
3 21 Y 6 Y 38 Y
4 12 Y 5 Y
5 11 N
6 7 Y
7 6 N
8 6 Y
9 6 N
Clarkson 0.76 0.81 1.00 0.82
Ret 103 34 2223
Total 135 42 2223
1 21 Y 15 Y 998 Y
2 20 N 10 Y 795 Y
3 17 Y 9 Y 430 Y
4 15 Y 8 N
5 13 Y
6 13 Y
7 12 Y
8 12 Y
9 12 N
Colgate 0.63 0.45 1.00 0.63
Ret 117 24 2297
Total 187 53 2297
1 31 Y 15 Y 2095 Y
2 29 N 15 N 202 Y
3 26 Y 14 N
4 24 N 9 Y
5 20 Y
6 20 Y
7 17 N
8 11 Y
9 9 Y
Cornell 0.58 0.28 1.00 0.55
Ret 57 9 1870
Total 99 32 1870
1 22 N 14 N 1476 Y
2 14 Y 9 N 394 Y
3 14 Y 5 Y
4 12 N 4 Y
5 11 Y
6 8 N
7 8 Y
8 5 Y
9 5 Y
Dartmouth 0.37 0.53 1.00 0.53
Ret 60 23 1992
Total 162 43 1992
1 30 N 14 Y 1577 Y
2 24 N 13 N 415 Y
3 23 N 9 Y
4 22 Y 7 N
5 19 Y
6 15 N
7 10 Y
8 10 N
9 9 Y
Harvard 1.00 0.57 0.02 0.69
Ret 229 28 56
Total 229 49 2288
1 58 Y 21 N 2232 N
2 48 Y 10 Y 43 Y
3 30 Y 9 Y 13 Y
4 27 Y 9 Y
5 18 Y
6 17 Y
7 17 Y
8 7 Y
9 7 Y
Princeton 0.79 0.40 1.00 0.70
Ret 54 8 1785
Total 68 20 1792
1 14 Y 8 N 1676 Y
2 10 Y 5 Y 109 Y
3 10 Y 4 N 7 N
4 8 N 3 Y
5 7 Y
6 6 N
7 5 Y
8 4 Y
9 4 Y
Quinnipiac 0.82 0.50 1.00 0.75
Ret 169 33 2393
Total 205 66 2393
1 39 Y 22 N 2153 Y
2 36 N 20 Y 240 Y
3 33 Y 13 Y 0 Y
4 31 Y 11 N
5 17 Y
6 15 Y
7 13 Y
8 12 Y
9 9 Y
RPI 0.65 0.71 0.74 0.68
Ret 84 25 1816
Total 130 35 2450
1 20 Y 10 N 1816 Y
2 19 N 9 Y 634 N
3 16 N 8 Y
4 15 Y 8 Y
5 14 Y
6 13 Y
7 12 Y
8 11 N
9 10 Y
SLU 0.72 0.78 1.00 0.79
Ret 118 53 2245
Total 164 68 2245
1 26 Y 20 Y 2186 Y
2 24 N 17 Y 59 Y
3 23 Y 16 Y
4 22 N 15 N
5 17 Y
6 14 Y
7 13 Y
8 13 Y
9 12 Y
Union 0.64 1.00 0.27 0.70
Ret 152 66 644
Total 239 66 2390
1 50 N 31 Y 1742 N
2 50 Y 13 Y 644 Y
3 28 Y 11 Y 4 N
4 28 N 11 Y
5 25 Y
6 19 Y
7 22 Y
8 9 N
9 8 Y
Yale 0.93 0.57 1.00 0.82
Ret 132 29 2044
Total 142 51 2044
1 23 Y 21 Y 1925 Y
2 21 Y 14 N 119 Y
3 19 Y 8 N
4 19 Y 8 Y
5 18 Y
6 15 Y
7 10 N
8 10 Y
9 7 Y

 

Summary:

  RetF RetD RetG WRet
Brown .60 .58 1.00 .66
Clarkson .76 .81 1.00 .82
Colgate .63 .45 1.00 .63
Cornell .58 .28 1.00 .55
Dartmouth .37 .53 1.00 .53
Harvard 1.00 .57 .02 .69
Princeton .79 .40 1.00 .70
Quinnipiac .82 .50 1.00 .75
RPI .65 .71 .74 .68
SLU .72 .78 1.00 .79
Union .64 1.00 .27 .70
Yale .93 .57 1.00 .82

Avg10

Avg10 measures traditional program strength, by taking the team's mean number of Points over the prior 10 seasons.  This will be used to compute the expected Incoming factor.

 

Backup Data:

Brn Clk Col Cor Drt Hvd Prn Qpc RPI SLU Uni Yal
2006 11 20 30 29 30 27 17 17 22 25 22 14
2007 16 30 17 24 27 22 22 24 17 33 15 17
2008 15 33 21 25 15 27 28 22 15 16 25 22
2009 10 20 17 29 24 24 28 21 13 26 20 32
2010 16 11 26 31 17 17 18 22 23 23 28 32
2011 18 19 11 24 26 15 24 19 24 13 36 35
2012 14 22 23 30 19 25 16 23 17 21 32 22
2013 20 19 15 19 22 14 20 37 27 22 24 25
2014 17 24 29 24 16 16 8 28 21 18 37 24
2015 13 19 26 22 26 25 6 35 18 29 17 28
 
Pts 150 217 215 257 222 212 187 248 197 226 256 251
Avg 15.0 21.7 21.5 25.7 22.2 21.2 18.7 24.8 19.7 22.6 25.6 25.1

Summary:

Avg10
Brown 15.00
Clarkson 21.70
Colgate 21.50
Cornell 25.70
Dartmouth 22.20
Harvard 21.20
Princeton 18.70
Quinnipiac 24.80
RPI 19.70
SLU 22.60
Union 25.60
Yale 25.10

Putting it All Together

From these independent metrics, we now generate several calculated metrics:

Metric Name Definition Calculation
Prior "Prior Season" Total of prior season metrics RS + PS +Imp
Ret "Returning Factor" Portion of current value from returnees WRet * Prior
WInc "Weighted Incoming" Pct of incoming value 1 - WRet
Inc "Incoming Factor" Portion of current value from incoming WInc * Avg10
Nieu "New Predictor" Sum of veteran and incoming factors Ret + Inc
Pred "Prediction" Predicted order of finish Rank order of Nieu

All but the last of these calculated metrics are just convenient conceptual groupings -- the final metric, Nieu, could be calculated directly from the independent metrics.  But we'll sacrifice brevity for clarity of expression (and check our work) by spelling them out in the table below:

 

RS PS Imp Prior WRet Ret Avg10 WInc Inc Nieu Pred
Brown 13 0 +4 17 .66 11.22 15.00 .34 5.10 16.32 11
Clarkson 19 -1 -2 16 .82 13.12 21.70 .18 3.91 17.03 10
Colgate 26 0 -1 25 .63 15.75 21.50 .37 7.96 23.71 6
Cornell 22 -1 -1 20 .55 11.00 25.70 .45 11.57 22.57 7
Dartmouth 26 0 +5 31 .53 16.43 22.20 .47 10.43 26.86 4
Harvard 25 +3 -3 25 .69 17.25 21.20 .31 6.57 23.82 5
Princeton 6 0 +1 7 .70 4.90 18.70 .30 5.61 10.51 12
Quinnipiac 35 -1 0 34 .75 25.50 24.80 .25 6.20 31.70 1
RPI 18 +1 -1 18 .68 12.24 19.70 .32 6.30 18.54 9
SLU 29 -1 0 28 .79 22.12 22.60 .21 4.75 26.87 3
Union 17 +1 0 18 .70 12.60 25.60 .30 7.68 20.28 8
Yale 28 -1 +1 28 .82 22.96 25.10 .18 4.52 27.48 2