HPredHPredPred is the predictive metric generated from last year's statistics.
EPct is the historical wining percentage of each team in the ECAC.
AdjEPct is an adjusted metric allowing the EPct's to be normalized.
AdjEPts is the adjusted number of points a team with that winning percentage would have over a fictional 44 point season.
HPredLong = (Pred + MEPts) / 2. Note that for the purposes of the averaging, Pred and HPredLong are taken out to the second decimal place.
HPred = a whole number value for HPredLong.
|
Team |
Pred |
EPct |
AdjEPct |
AdjEPts |
HPredLong |
HPred |
|
Brown |
12.15 |
.448 |
.458 |
20.43 |
16.29 |
16 |
|
Clarkson |
33.47 |
.683 |
.698 |
31.15 |
32.31 |
32 |
|
Colgate |
28.61 |
.479 |
.490 |
21.85 |
25.23 |
25 |
|
Cornell |
29.39 |
.646 |
.661 |
29.47 |
29.43 |
30 |
|
Dartmouth |
19.74 |
.330 |
.337 |
15.05 |
17.39 |
17 |
|
Harvard |
15.04 |
.621 |
.635 |
28.32 |
21.68 |
22 |
|
Princeton |
24.00 |
.352 |
.360 |
16.06 |
20.03 |
20 |
|
RPI |
17.13 |
.520 |
.532 |
23.72 |
20.42 |
21 |
|
St. Lawrence |
35.15 |
.511 |
.522 |
23.31 |
29.23 |
29 |
|
Union |
13.15 |
.289 |
.296 |
13.18 |
13.16 |
13 |
|
Vermont |
23.65 |
.488 |
.499 |
22.26 |
22.95 |
23 |
|
Yale |
12.74 |
.421 |
.430 |
19.20 |
15.97 |
16 |
|
264.22 |
5.788 |
264.00 |
264.11 |
264 | ||
|
22.02 |
.482333 |
22.00 |
22.01 |
22 |
Note that in order to equalize the HPred records at a mean of 22 pts, one point was added for each of two schools whose long HPred required the least upward adjust to reach .5. These turned out to be Cornell, whose 29.43 required just a 0.07 adjustment, and RPI, whose 29.42 required just a 0.08 adjustment.