Pred

(Old) Conference Record Predictor

Seven statistics that go into the prediction score are added such that the sum should reflect each team�s league points in the coming season. This requires a little playful mathematics, as described below. For each team, first we compute AvgMod, the average of the five percentage modifiers. The mean of AvgMod is itself used in calculating an adjustment, AdjMod, which, when added to RS_22 and PS produces the predictor of conference points, Pred.

For the hardcore types:

AvgMod = (5Pct + 1/2 + RetG + RetD + RetM) / 5
AdjMod = 44 * (AvgMod - MEAN[AvgMod])
Pred = AdjMod + RS_22 + PS

For this year's Pred stats:

MEAN[AvgMod] = .502

Team	5Pct	1/2	RetG	RetD	RetM	AvgMod	AdjMod	RS_22	PS	Pred
Brown	.344	+.300	.682	.867	.448	.528	+1	11	0	12
Clarkson	.736	+.350	.658	.842	1.000	.717	+9	24	0	33
Colgate	.602	+.100	.605	.542	.162	.402	-4	34	-1	29
Cornell	.569	+.250	.558	.746	1.000	.625	+5	24	0	29
Dartmouth	.349	-.200	.901	.667	.763	.496	0	20	0	20
Harvard	.450	-.100	.624	.676	.183	.367	-6	21	0	15
Princeton	.482	.000	.798	.737	.834	.570	+3	21	0	24
RPI	.550	-.100	.626	.676	.002	.300	-9	25	+1	17
St. Lawrence	.611	+.150	.700	.463	.376	.460	-2	37	0	35
Union	.294	-.450	.759	.810	1.000	.483	-1	14	0	13
Vermont	.568	.000	.811	1.000	1.000	.676	+8	16	0	24
Yale	.459	-.300	.682	.678	.507	.405	-4	17	0	13
Sum	6.014	.000	8.152	8.704	7.275	6.029	0	264	0	264
Mean	.501	.000	.679	.725	.606	.502	0	22	0	22

So we have point records, and to generate W-L-T records we give a team its most recent number of either odd or even ties, which is more appropriate. We compute the ties pretty much just for the hell of it, to create records which are more intuitively interesting than point totals..

Ties in the actual standings (e.g., Princeton and Vermont at 24 points) are resolved by slight differences in the pre-rounded values of the Pred scores.

For the traditionalists, here are the predicted standings based solely on Pred.

Pos

Team
W L T Pts

1
St. Lawrence
17 4 1 35

2 Clarkson 15 4 3 33

3 Cornell 14 7 1 29

4 Colgate 13 6 3 29

5 Princeton 10 8 4 24

6 Vermont 11 9 2 24

7 Dartmouth 9 11 2 20

8 RPI 8 13 1 17

9 Harvard 7 14 1 15

10 Union 6 15 1 13

11 Yale 6 15 1 13

12 Brown 5 15 2 12