Never Apologize, Never Explain 2023-24

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This page describes the methodology for this year's TBRW? Predictions.  As always, if you catch an error please contact me.

RS

RS is each team's points (real points, not derp points) in the prior ECAC regular season:

RS  
Brown 13  
Clarkson 21  
Colgate 25  
Cornell 31  
Dartmouth 9  
Harvard 36  
Princeton 16  
Quinnipiac 40  
RPI 18  
SLU 24  
Union 17  
Yale 16  

PS

PS is the number of upset (lower seed) advances (+1) or eliminations (-1) in the previous season's ECAC tournament.  The consolation game is ignored.

The upsets in the last season's ECAC tournament were:

PS  
Brown 0  
Clarkson 0  
Colgate +3  
Cornell 0  
Dartmouth 0  
Harvard -1  
Princeton +1  
Quinnipiac -1  
RPI -1  
SLU -1  
Union -1  
Yale +1  

 

Imp

Imp is the difference in points gained in the second half (games 12-22) minus the first half (games 1-11) of the prior ECAC regular season, divided by 2, rounded down.  A positive Imp indicates the team had a better second half:

Pts 2nd 1st Diff Imp  
Brown 13 7 6 +1 0  
Clarkson 21 11 10 +1 0  
Colgate 25 9 16 -7 -3  
Cornell 31 15 16 -1 0  
Dartmouth 9 4 5 -1 0  
Harvard 36 18 18 0 0  
Princeton 16 6 10 -4 -2  
Quinnipiac 40 18 22 -4 -2  
RPI 18 12 6 +6 +3  
SLU 24 12 12 0 0  
Union 17 11 6 +5 +2  
Yale 16 11 5 +6 +3  

 

RP%: Returning Points Percentage -- A Fond Farewell

Returning points was the percentage of prior year's points not lost to graduation or early departure.  The increase in players moving between teams through the portal has rendered this less sigificant, as teams tend to compensate for extensive losses. To be honest, it also makes it far more labor intensive to calculate. Therefore, TBRW is dropping it from the calculation.

 

RA: Returning Awardees

Returning Awardees is the net return (or loss) of ECAC First Team, POTY, and ROTY awards.  The potential repetition of a player (e.g., First Team and POTY) is intentional to allow for the impact of unusually talented players.

The prior ECAC awardees were:

Award Name Team Status
ECAC F Colin Graf Quinnipiac Return
ECAC F Sean Farrell Harvard Loss
ECAC F Alex Young Colgate Loss
ECAC D Henry Thrun Harvard Loss
ECAC D Sam Malinski Cornell Loss
ECAC G Yaniv Perets Quinnipiac Loss
POTY Sean Farrell Harvard Loss
DF Skyler Brind’Amour Quinnipiac Loss
DD Henry Thrun Harvard Loss
ROTY Sam Lipkin Quinnipiac Return

The calculation: add one point for each returning awardee while subtracting one for each departure:

  Return Depart RA  
Brown 0 0 0  
Clarkson 0 0 0  
Colgate 0 1 -1  
Cornell 0 1 -1  
Dartmouth 0 0 0  
Harvard 0 4 -4  
Princeton 0 0 0  
Quinnipiac 2 2 0  
RPI 0 0 0  
SLU 0 0 0  
Union 0 0 0  
Yale 0 0 0  

 

Avg10

Avg10 measures traditional program strength, by taking the team's mean number of Points over the prior 10 seasons.

Brn Clk Cgt Cor Drt Hvd Prn Qpc RPI SLU Uni Yal  
2013 20 19 15 19 22 14 20 37 27 22 24 25  
2014 17 24 29 24 16 16 8 28 21 18 37 24  
2015 13 19 26 22 26 25 6 35 18 29 17 28  
2016 12 23 14 22 22 28 9 37 23 25 18 31  
2017 7 23 15 31 16 34 19 27 12 28 34 18  
2018 15 29 23 36 23 25 22 20 10 7 33 21  
2019 21 28 17 30 23 28 18 30 16 8 22 23  
2020 18 33 21 38 22 27 8 30 27 6 12 22  
2022 16 32 22 28 12 30 15 35 20 19 20 15  
2023 13 21 25 31 9 36 16 40 18 24 17 16  
   
Pts 152 267 221 283 191 263 141 343 192 196 234 221  
Avg10 15.2 26.7 22.1 28.3 19.1 26.3 14.1 34.3 19.2 19.6 23.4 22.1  

 

Summary:

  Avg10  
Brown 15.2  
Clarkson 26.7  
Colgate 22.1  
Cornell 28.3  
Dartmouth 19.1  
Harvard 26.3  
Princeton 14.1  
Quinnipiac 34.3  
RPI 19.2  
SLU 19.6  
Union 23.4  
Yale 22.1  

 

Putting it All Together

Now we put everything together to predict the final standings, by taking half from the Past and half from the Future.

The Past

Prior, the quality, is the sum of RS, PS, Imp, and RA.

Past, the relative measure of returning strength, is Prior times 1/2, rounded down.

RS PS Imp RA Prior Past  
Brown 13 0 0 0 13 6.5  
Clarkson 21 0 0 0 21 10.5  
Colgate 25 +3 -3 -1 24 12.0  
Cornell 31 0 0 -1 30 15.0  
Dartmouth 9 0 0 0 9 4.5  
Harvard 36 -1 0 -4 31 15.5  
Princeton 16 +1 -2 0 15 7.5  
Quinnipiac 40 -1 -2 0 37 18.5  
RPI 18 -1 +3 0 20 10.0  
SLU 24 -1 0 0 23 11.5  
Union 17 -1 +2 0 18 9.0  
Yale 16 +1 +3 0 20 10.0  

 

The Future

Secondly, we want to make the same two estimates for the incoming players: their quality and quantity.

Avg10 above, carried down.

Fut, the relative estimate of incoming strength, equals Avg10 / 2.

 

Avg10 Fut  
Brown 15.2 7.6  
Clarkson 26.7 13.4  
Colgate 22.1 11.1  
Cornell 28.3 14.2  
Dartmouth 19.1 9.6  
Harvard 26.3 13.2  
Princeton 14.1 7.1  
Quinnipiac 34.3 17.2  
RPI 19.2 9.6  
SLU 19.6 9.8  
Union 23.4 11.7  
Yale 22.1 11.1  

 

Conclusion

All that's left to do is add Past and Fut together (Net). Multiply by Norm = (22 - mean of Net)/12, to get the normalized RS strength (Nieu). Then rank order to get the ECAC standing (Pred).

Norm = .992854

Total:

Past Fut Net Nieu Pred  
Brown 6.5 7.6 14.1 14.00 11  
Clarkson 10.5 13.4 23.8 23.63 4  
Colgate 12.0 11.1 23.1 22.93 5  
Cornell 15.0 14.2 29.2 28.99 2  
Dartmouth 4.5 9.6 14.1 14.00 11  
Harvard 15.5 13.2 28.7 28.49 3  
Princeton 7.5 7.1 14.6 14.49 10  
Quinnipiac 18.5 17.2 35.7 35.44 1  
RPI 10.0 9.6 19.6 19.46 9  
SLU 11.5 9.8 21.2 21.05 6  
Union 9.0 11.7 20.7 20.55 8  
Yale 10.0 11.1 21.1 20.95 7