This page describes the methodology for this year's *TBRW? Predictions*.
As always, if you catch an error please contact me.

RS is each team's points (real points, not derp points) in the prior ECAC regular season:

RS | ||

Brown | 13 | |

Clarkson | 21 | |

Colgate | 25 | |

Cornell | 31 | |

Dartmouth | 9 | |

Harvard | 36 | |

Princeton | 16 | |

Quinnipiac | 40 | |

RPI | 18 | |

SLU | 24 | |

Union | 17 | |

Yale | 16 |

PS is the number of upset (lower seed) advances (+1) or eliminations (-1) in the previous season's ECAC tournament. The consolation game is ignored.

The upsets in the last season's ECAC tournament were:

- 1R #10 Yale upsets #7 RPI
- 1R #9 Princeton upsets #8 Union
- QF #5 Colgate upsets #4 St. Lawrence
- SF #5 Colgate upsets #1 Quinnipiac
- F #5 Colgate upsets #2 Harvard

PS | ||

Brown | 0 | |

Clarkson | 0 | |

Colgate | +3 | |

Cornell | 0 | |

Dartmouth | 0 | |

Harvard | -1 | |

Princeton | +1 | |

Quinnipiac | -1 | |

RPI | -1 | |

SLU | -1 | |

Union | -1 | |

Yale | +1 |

Imp is the difference in points gained in the second half (games 12-22) minus the first half (games 1-11) of the prior ECAC regular season, divided by 2, rounded down. A positive Imp indicates the team had a better second half:

Pts | 2nd ½ | 1st ½ | Diff | Imp | ||

Brown | 13 | 7 | 6 | +1 | 0 | |

Clarkson | 21 | 11 | 10 | +1 | 0 | |

Colgate | 25 | 9 | 16 | -7 | -3 | |

Cornell | 31 | 15 | 16 | -1 | 0 | |

Dartmouth | 9 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 0 | |

Harvard | 36 | 18 | 18 | 0 | 0 | |

Princeton | 16 | 6 | 10 | -4 | -2 | |

Quinnipiac | 40 | 18 | 22 | -4 | -2 | |

RPI | 18 | 12 | 6 | +6 | +3 | |

SLU | 24 | 12 | 12 | 0 | 0 | |

Union | 17 | 11 | 6 | +5 | +2 | |

Yale | 16 | 11 | 5 | +6 | +3 |

Returning points was the percentage of prior year's points not lost to graduation or early departure. The increase in players moving between teams through the portal has rendered this less sigificant, as teams tend to compensate for extensive losses. To be honest, it also makes it far more labor intensive to calculate. Therefore, TBRW is dropping it from the calculation.

Returning Awardees is the net return (or loss) of ECAC First Team, POTY, and ROTY awards. The potential repetition of a player (e.g., First Team and POTY) is intentional to allow for the impact of unusually talented players.

The prior ECAC awardees were:

Award | Name | Team | Status |

ECAC F | Colin Graf | Quinnipiac | Return |

ECAC F | Sean Farrell | Harvard | Loss |

ECAC F | Alex Young | Colgate | Loss |

ECAC D | Henry Thrun | Harvard | Loss |

ECAC D | Sam Malinski | Cornell | Loss |

ECAC G | Yaniv Perets | Quinnipiac | Loss |

POTY | Sean Farrell | Harvard | Loss |

DF | Skyler Brind’Amour | Quinnipiac | Loss |

DD | Henry Thrun | Harvard | Loss |

ROTY | Sam Lipkin | Quinnipiac | Return |

The calculation: add one point for each returning awardee while subtracting one for each departure:

Return | Depart | RA | ||

Brown | 0 | 0 | 0 | |

Clarkson | 0 | 0 | 0 | |

Colgate | 0 | 1 | -1 | |

Cornell | 0 | 1 | -1 | |

Dartmouth | 0 | 0 | 0 | |

Harvard | 0 | 4 | -4 | |

Princeton | 0 | 0 | 0 | |

Quinnipiac | 2 | 2 | 0 | |

RPI | 0 | 0 | 0 | |

SLU | 0 | 0 | 0 | |

Union | 0 | 0 | 0 | |

Yale | 0 | 0 | 0 |

Avg10 measures traditional program strength, by taking the team's mean number of Points over the prior 10 seasons.

Brn | Clk | Cgt | Cor | Drt | Hvd | Prn | Qpc | RPI | SLU | Uni | Yal | ||

2013 | 20 | 19 | 15 | 19 | 22 | 14 | 20 | 37 | 27 | 22 | 24 | 25 | |

2014 | 17 | 24 | 29 | 24 | 16 | 16 | 8 | 28 | 21 | 18 | 37 | 24 | |

2015 | 13 | 19 | 26 | 22 | 26 | 25 | 6 | 35 | 18 | 29 | 17 | 28 | |

2016 | 12 | 23 | 14 | 22 | 22 | 28 | 9 | 37 | 23 | 25 | 18 | 31 | |

2017 | 7 | 23 | 15 | 31 | 16 | 34 | 19 | 27 | 12 | 28 | 34 | 18 | |

2018 | 15 | 29 | 23 | 36 | 23 | 25 | 22 | 20 | 10 | 7 | 33 | 21 | |

2019 | 21 | 28 | 17 | 30 | 23 | 28 | 18 | 30 | 16 | 8 | 22 | 23 | |

2020 | 18 | 33 | 21 | 38 | 22 | 27 | 8 | 30 | 27 | 6 | 12 | 22 | |

2022 | 16 | 32 | 22 | 28 | 12 | 30 | 15 | 35 | 20 | 19 | 20 | 15 | |

2023 | 13 | 21 | 25 | 31 | 9 | 36 | 16 | 40 | 18 | 24 | 17 | 16 | |

Pts | 152 | 267 | 221 | 283 | 191 | 263 | 141 | 343 | 192 | 196 | 234 | 221 | |

Avg10 | 15.2 | 26.7 | 22.1 | 28.3 | 19.1 | 26.3 | 14.1 | 34.3 | 19.2 | 19.6 | 23.4 | 22.1 |

Summary:

Avg10 | ||

Brown | 15.2 | |

Clarkson | 26.7 | |

Colgate | 22.1 | |

Cornell | 28.3 | |

Dartmouth | 19.1 | |

Harvard | 26.3 | |

Princeton | 14.1 | |

Quinnipiac | 34.3 | |

RPI | 19.2 | |

SLU | 19.6 | |

Union | 23.4 | |

Yale | 22.1 |

Now we put everything together to predict the final standings, by taking half from the Past and half from the Future.

**Prior**, the quality, is the sum of RS, PS, Imp, and RA.

**Past, **the** **relative measure of returning
strength, is Prior times 1/2, rounded down.

RS | PS | Imp | RA | Prior | Past | ||

Brown | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 6.5 | |

Clarkson | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21 | 10.5 | |

Colgate | 25 | +3 | -3 | -1 | 24 | 12.0 | |

Cornell | 31 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 30 | 15.0 | |

Dartmouth | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 4.5 | |

Harvard | 36 | -1 | 0 | -4 | 31 | 15.5 | |

Princeton | 16 | +1 | -2 | 0 | 15 | 7.5 | |

Quinnipiac | 40 | -1 | -2 | 0 | 37 | 18.5 | |

RPI | 18 | -1 | +3 | 0 | 20 | 10.0 | |

SLU | 24 | -1 | 0 | 0 | 23 | 11.5 | |

Union | 17 | -1 | +2 | 0 | 18 | 9.0 | |

Yale | 16 | +1 | +3 | 0 | 20 | 10.0 |

Secondly, we want to make the same two estimates for the incoming players: their quality and quantity.

Avg10 above, carried down.

**Fut, **the** **relative estimate of incoming
strength, equals Avg10 / 2.

Avg10 | Fut | ||

Brown | 15.2 | 7.6 | |

Clarkson | 26.7 | 13.4 | |

Colgate | 22.1 | 11.1 | |

Cornell | 28.3 | 14.2 | |

Dartmouth | 19.1 | 9.6 | |

Harvard | 26.3 | 13.2 | |

Princeton | 14.1 | 7.1 | |

Quinnipiac | 34.3 | 17.2 | |

RPI | 19.2 | 9.6 | |

SLU | 19.6 | 9.8 | |

Union | 23.4 | 11.7 | |

Yale | 22.1 | 11.1 |

All that's left to do is add Past and Fut together (**Net**). Multiply by **Norm **= (22 - *mean of Net*)/12, to get the normalized RS strength (**Nieu**). Then rank order to get the ECAC standing (**Pred**).

**Norm** = .992854

Total:

Past | Fut | Net | Nieu | Pred | ||

Brown | 6.5 | 7.6 | 14.1 | 14.00 | 11 | |

Clarkson | 10.5 | 13.4 | 23.8 | 23.63 | 4 | |

Colgate | 12.0 | 11.1 | 23.1 | 22.93 | 5 | |

Cornell | 15.0 | 14.2 | 29.2 | 28.99 | 2 | |

Dartmouth | 4.5 | 9.6 | 14.1 | 14.00 | 11 | |

Harvard | 15.5 | 13.2 | 28.7 | 28.49 | 3 | |

Princeton | 7.5 | 7.1 | 14.6 | 14.49 | 10 | |

Quinnipiac | 18.5 | 17.2 | 35.7 | 35.44 | 1 | |

RPI | 10.0 | 9.6 | 19.6 | 19.46 | 9 | |

SLU | 11.5 | 9.8 | 21.2 | 21.05 | 6 | |

Union | 9.0 | 11.7 | 20.7 | 20.55 | 8 | |

Yale | 10.0 | 11.1 | 21.1 | 20.95 | 7 |