Never Apologize, Never Explain

First we take base values directly computed from last year's team performance:

RS Regular season performance in prior season
PS Post-season performance in prior season

Factored into these base values is a function of the following modifiers (the calculation is shown below):

Imp Second-half improvement in prior season
Ret Returning players from prior season

RS

RS = Prior regular season's points, or percentage multiplied by 44 if a team has not played 22 games.

RS
Brown 16
Clarkson 11
Colgate 26
Cornell 31
Dartmouth 17
Harvard 17
Princeton 18
Quinnipiac 22
RPI 23
St. Lawrence 23
Union 28
Yale 32

PS

The number of upset advances (+1) or eliminations (-1) in the previous season's ECAC playoffs, multipled by 2.  The consolation game is ignored.

PS
Brown +4
Clarkson 0
Colgate -2
Cornell 0
Dartmouth 0
Harvard +2
Princeton -2
Quinnipiac 0
RPI -2
St. Lawrence +2
Union 0
Yale -2

Imp

One-half (rounded down) of the difference in points gained in the second half (games 12-22) minus the first half (games 1-11) of the prior ECAC regular season.

Pts G 12-22 G 1-11 Diff Imp
Brown 16 9 7 2 1
Clarkson 11 7 4 3 1
Colgate 6 13 13 0 0
Cornell 31 15 16 -1 0
Dartmouth 17 13 4 9 4
Harvard 17 7 10 -3 -3
Princeton 18 11 7 4 2
Quinnipiac 22 8 14 -6 -3
RPI 23 11 12 -1 0
St. Lawrence 23 9 14 -5 -2
Union 28 11 17 -6 -3
Yale 32 16 16 0 0

Ret

This metric is based on returning % of last year's players:

We sum these three stats and then multiply by 7 to scale the percentages to a metric comparable to the other season points metrics. (We chose 7 by the following arbitrary logic. The difference between the theoretical max and min of the sum of the three stats is 3.00. Multiplying by 7 gives a theoretical maximum spread of 21 points -- just barely shy of one-half of an ECAC season. That seemed about right. Note that in practice the real spread will be around 1.00, or 7 points -- very close to the max spread of 6 points from the former RetF, RetD and RetG stats.)

The team breakdowns are shown here.

All of last year's seniors are assumed non-returning. This year there are five significant players with eligibility remaining known to not be returning:

  RetF RetD RetG Ret
Brown .63 .59 .90 15
Clarkson .73 .94 1.00 19
Colgate .70 1.00 .64 16
Cornell .63 .50 .02 8
Dartmouth .94 .80 1.00 19
Harvard .91 .51 .99 17
Princeton .57 .73 .30 11
Quinnipiac .31 1.00 1.00 16
RPI .53 .84 1.00 17
St. Lawrence .46 .52 .13 8
Union .64 .53 .99 15
Yale .73 .49 .77 14

Putting it All Together

Ned

Ned = RS + PS + Imp + Ret

The predicted finish is the rank-order of Ned. Tie-breakers go in order of the stats: first RS, then PS, then Imp.

RS PS Imp Ret Ned Rank
Brown 16 +4 1 15 36 7
Clarkson 11 0 1 19 31 11
Colgate 26 -2 0 16 40 3
Cornell 31 0 0 8 39 5
Dartmouth 17 0 4 19 40 4
Harvard 17 +2 -3 17 35 9
Princeton 18 -2 2 11 29 12
Quinnipiac 22 0 -3 16 35 8
RPI 23 -2 0 17 38 6
St. Lawrence 23 +2 -2 8 31 10
Union 28 0 -3 15 40 2
Yale 32 -2 0 14 44 1