Never Apologize, Never Explain
First we take base values directly computed from last year's team performance:
Factored into these base values is a function of the following modifiers (the calculation is shown below):
RS = Prior regular season's points, or percentage multiplied by 44 if a team has not played 22 games.
The number of upset advances (+1) or eliminations (-1) in the previous season's ECAC playoffs, multipled by 2. The consolation game is ignored.
One-half (rounded down) of the difference in points gained in the second half (games 12-22) minus the first half (games 1-11) of the prior ECAC regular season.
This metric is based on returning % of last year's players:
We sum these three stats and then multiply by 7 to scale the percentages to a metric comparable to the other season points metrics. (We chose 7 by the following arbitrary logic. The difference between the theoretical max and min of the sum of the three stats is 3.00. Multiplying by 7 gives a theoretical maximum spread of 21 points -- just barely shy of one-half of an ECAC season. That seemed about right. Note that in practice the real spread will be around 1.00, or 7 points -- very close to the max spread of 6 points from the former RetF, RetD and RetG stats.)
The team breakdowns are shown here.
All of last year's seniors are assumed non-returning. This year, no players who might qualify by these categories are known to be non-returning (this is highly unusual).
Putting it All Together
Ned = RS + PS + Imp + Ret
The predicted finish is the rank-order of Ned. Tie-breakers go in order of the stats: first RS, then PS, then Imp.