Never Apologize, Never Explain, 2006

So, here's how we do it.  Follow the links for detailed computations.

Theory...

First we take base values directly computed from last year's team performance:

RS

 Regular season performance in previous season.

PS

 Post-season performance in previous season.

 

Factored into these base values is a function of the following modifiers:

Prv3

Standing in total conference record in the three previous seasons.

1/2

Second-half improvement, previous regular season.

RetF

Returning % of Leading Forwards points.

RetD

Returning % of Leading Defensemen points.

RetG

Returning % of Goaltender wins.

 

Pred is derived by adding all of the base values and modifiers together:

Pred = (RS + PS) + (Prv3 + 1/2 + RetF + RetD + RetG)

FPred, the basis for our final predictor, is derived by regressing Pred 25% back towards the team's aggregate conference standing over the previous ten seasons:

FPred = 3 * Pred + Prv10

Pred

 Sum of all base values and modifiers.

Prv10

 Standing in total conference record in the ten previous seasons.

FPred

 Final predictor and basis for the TBRW? Prediction.

Our final prediction, TBRW, is the rank order of FPred.

TBRW

 Predicted ranking.

The modifiers are computed for the present year, below.


... and Practice

RS

RS is a reversal (returning the largest number for first place) of the previous season's ECAC regular season standings.  RS = (12 - Standing).

This year, Quinnipiac, which replaces Vermont as an ECAC member, presents a challenge.  To resolve it, we reviewed their relative position within KRACH, considered by ´┐Żbergeeks dear to the editors' hearts as the finest cross-conference comparative metric for college hockey.  Prior to the NCAA tournament, the Bobcats ranked behind the eleven returning teams.  Therefore, we give them a stand-in RS of 12 for this edition of the Predictions.  The ECAC teams that finished below UVM's 7th position are moved up accordingly.

 

 

Standing RS

Brown

5 7
Clarkson 8 4
Colgate 3 9
Cornell 1 11
Dartmouth 4 8
Harvard 2 10
Princeton 9 3
Quinnipiac 12 0
RPI 10 2
St. Lawrence 6 6
Union 7 5
Yale 11 1

 

PS

The number of post-season upset series wins (+1) and losses (-1) in the previous season's ECAC playoffs.  The consolation game is ignored.

There as only one 2004-05  playoff series in which the better seed did not advance:

Quinnipiac is given a neutral mark by convention.

 

 

PS

Brown

0
Clarkson +1
Colgate 0
Cornell 0
Dartmouth 0
Harvard 0
Princeton 0
Quinnipiac 0
RPI 0
St. Lawrence 0
Union -1
Yale 0

 

Prv3

The third (+1 top 33%, 0 middle 33%, -1 bottom 33%) in conference winning percentage (Pct) for the previous three years, i.e., those seasons in which the current returning classes have played.  Quinnipiac is given a neutral mark by convention.

 

Pct Rank Prv3

Brown

.545 5 0
Clarkson .417 8 0
Colgate .621 3 +1
Cornell .803 1 +1
Dartmouth .614 4 +1
Harvard .674 2 +1
Princeton .242 12 -1
Quinnipiac --- --- 0
RPI .386 11 -1
St. Lawrence .402 9 -1
Union .439 7 0
Yale .402 9 -1

 

1/2

The third (+1 top 33%, 0 middle 33%, -1 bottom 33%) in improvement in points gained in the second half (games 12-22) over the first half (games 1-11) of the previous ECAC regular season.  Quinnipiac is given a neutral mark by convention.

 

Pts Total Pts 12-22 Pts 1-11 Pts Diff 1/2

Brown

20 10 10 0 0
Clarkson 16 9 7 +2 0
Colgate 31 11 20 -11 -1
Cornell 38 21 17 +4 +1
Dartmouth 28 16 12 +4 +1
Harvard 32 19 13 +6 +1
Princeton 14 6 8 -2 -1
Quinnipiac --- --- --- --- 0
RPI 13 8 5 +3 +1
St. Lawrence 19 7 12 -5 -1
Union 17 3 14 -11 -1
Yale 7 5 2 +3 +1

 

RetF

The third (+1 top 33%, 0 middle 33%, -1 bottom 33%)  in returning % of Leading Forwards points.  Team-by-team breakdown here.

 

RetF% RetF

Brown

63 0
Clarkson 56 -1
Colgate 59 0
Cornell 65 0
Dartmouth 77 +1
Harvard 56 -1
Princeton 65 0
Quinnipiac 54 -1
RPI 58 -1
St. Lawrence 66 +1
Union 70 +1
Yale 100 +1

 

RetD

The third (+1 top 33%, 0 middle 33%, -1 bottom 33%)  in returning % of Leading Defensemen points.  Team-by-team breakdown here.  (Union wins the tiebreaker with Quinnipiac, 88.9 - 88.5).

 

RetD% RetD

Brown

76 0
Clarkson 89 +1
Colgate 50 -1
Cornell 57 -1
Dartmouth 100 +1
Harvard 47 -1
Princeton 43 -1
Quinnipiac 89 0
RPI 80 0
St. Lawrence 61 0
Union 89 +1
Yale 100 +1

 

RetG

The third (+1 top 33%, 0 middle 33%, -1 bottom 33%)  in returning % of Leading Goaltenders wins.  Team-by-team breakdown here.

 

RetG% RetG

Brown

94 0
Clarkson 31 0
Colgate 4 -1
Cornell 100 +1
Dartmouth 30 0
Harvard 10 -1
Princeton 100 +1
Quinnipiac 5 -1
RPI 36 0
St. Lawrence 12 -1
Union 100 +1
Yale 100 +1

 


Putting it All Together

Pred

Pred = (RS + PS) + (Prv3 + 1/2 + RetF + RetD + RetG)

 

RS PS Prv3 1/2 RetF RetD RetG Pred

Brown

7 0 0 0 0 0 0 7
Clarkson 4 +1 0 0 -1 +1 0 5
Colgate 9 0 +1 -1 0 -1 -1 7
Cornell 11 0 +1 +1 0 -1 +1 13
Dartmouth 8 0 +1 +1 +1 +1 0 12
Harvard 10 0 +1 +1 -1 -1 -1 9
Princeton 3 0 -1 -1 0 -1 +1 1
Quinnipiac 0 0 0 0 -1 0 -1 -2
RPI 2 0 -1 +1 -1 0 0 1
St. Lawrence 6 0 -1 -1 +1 0 -1 4
Union 5 -1 0 -1 +1 +1 +1 6
Yale 1 0 -1 +1 +1 +1 +1 4

 

Prv10

Prv10 is a reversal (returning the largest number for first place) of the regular season Standing of the previous ten seasons, 1994-95 through  2003-04.  Prv10 = (12 - Standing).  As a compromise, we award Quinnipiac Vermont's position (7th), because they have already been given a tacit last place finish in the RS, and median score in Prv3.

 

Pct Standing Prv10

Brown

.404 11 1
Clarkson .626 2 10
Colgate .576 3 9
Cornell .665 1 11
Dartmouth .466 8 4
Harvard .539 4 8
Princeton .413 10 2
Quinnipiac --- 7 5
RPI .498 6 6
St. Lawrence .537 5 7
Union .363 12 0
Yale .443 9 3

 

FPred = (3 * Pred + Prv10).

The standings prediction, TBRW, is the rank order of FPred.

 

Pred 3*Pred Prv10 FPred TBRW

Brown

7 21 1 22 6
Clarkson 5 15 10 25 5
Colgate 7 21 9 30 4
Cornell 13 39 11 50 1
Dartmouth 12 36 4 40 2
Harvard 9 27 8 35 3
Princeton 1 3 2 5 11
Quinnipiac -2 -6 5 -1 12
RPI 1 3 6 9 10
St. Lawrence 4 12 7 19 7
Union 6 18 0 18 8
Yale 4 12 3 15 9