So, here's how we do it. Follow the links for detailed computations.
Regular season performance in previous season. |
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Post-season performance in previous season. |
Factored into these base values is a function of the following modifiers:
Standing in total conference record in the three previous seasons. |
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Second-half improvement, previous regular season. |
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Returning % of Leading Forwards points. |
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Returning % of Leading Defensemen points. |
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Returning % of Leading Goaltenders wins. |
Pred is derived by adding all the base values and modifiers together:
FPred, the basis for our final predictor, is derived by regressing Pred 25% back towards their conference standing of the previous ten seasons:Pred = (RS + PS) + (Prv3 + 1/2 + RetF + RetD + RetG)
FPred = 3 * Pred + Prv10
Sum of all base values and modifiers. |
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Standing in total conference record in the ten previous seasons. |
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Final predictor and basis for the TBRW? Prediction. |
Our final prediction, TBRW, is the rank order of FPred.
Predicted ranking. |
The modifiers are computed for the present year, below.
RS is a reversal (returning the largest number for first place) of the regular season Standing of 2003-04. RS = (12 - Standing).
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Standing | RS |
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Brown |
3 | 9 |
| Clarkson | 9 | 3 |
| Colgate | 1 | 11 |
| Cornell | 2 | 10 |
| Dartmouth | 4 | 8 |
| Harvard | 6 | 6 |
| Princeton | 12 | 0 |
| RPI | 5 | 7 |
| St. Lawrence | 10 | 2 |
| Union | 8 | 4 |
| Vermont | 11 | 1 |
| Yale | 7 | 5 |
The number of post-season upset series wins (+1) and losses (-1) in the 2003-04 playoffs. The consolation game is not counted.
2003-04 upsets:
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|
PS |
|
Brown |
-1 |
| Clarkson | +3 |
| Colgate | -1 |
| Cornell | -1 |
| Dartmouth | -1 |
| Harvard | +2 |
| Princeton | 0 |
| RPI | 0 |
| St. Lawrence | +1 |
| Union | -1 |
| Vermont | 0 |
| Yale | -1 |
The third (+1 top 33%, 0 middle 33%, -1 bottom 33%) in conference winning percentage (Pct) for the past three seasons (2001-02 through 2003-04): the seasons in which the current returning classes have played.
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Pct | Rank | Prv3 |
|
Brown |
.561 | 4 | +1 |
| Clarkson | .500 | 6 | 0 |
| Colgate | .553 | 5 | 0 |
| Cornell | .788 | 1 | +1 |
| Dartmouth | .576 | 3 | +1 |
| Harvard | .606 | 2 | +1 |
| Princeton | .303 | 11 | -1 |
| RPI | .462 | 8 | 0 |
| St. Lawrence | .409 | 10 | -1 |
| Union | .455 | 9 | -1 |
| Vermont | .288 | 12 | -1 |
| Yale | .500 | 0 | 0 |
The third (+1 top 33%, 0 middle 33%, -1 bottom 33%) in improvement in points gained in the second half of the RS (games 12-22) over the first half (games 1-11), last season (2003-04).
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Pts Total | Pts 12-22 | Pts 1-11 | Pts Diff | 1/2 |
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Brown |
28 | 11 | 17 | -6 | -1 |
| Clarkson | 18 | 6 | 12 | -6 | -1 |
| Colgate | 30 | 16 | 14 | +2 | +1 |
| Cornell | 29 | 14 | 15 | -1 | 0 |
| Dartmouth | 27 | 13 | 14 | -1 | 0 |
| Harvard | 22 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 0 |
| Princeton | 12 | 2 | 10 | -8 | -1 |
| RPI | 27 | 14 | 13 | +1 | 0 |
| St. Lawrence | 17 | 10 | 7 | +3 | +1 |
| Union | 19 | 13 | 6 | +7 | +1 |
| Vermont | 15 | 13 | 2 | +11 | +1 |
| Yale | 20 | 8 | 12 | -4 | -1 |
The third (+1 top 33%, 0 middle 33%, -1 bottom 33%) in returning % of Leading Forwards points. Team-by-team breakdown here.
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|
RetF% | RetF |
|
Brown |
71 | -1 |
| Clarkson | 81 | 0 |
| Colgate | 86 | +1 |
| Cornell | 81 | 0 |
| Dartmouth | 95 | +1 |
| Harvard | 76 | 0 |
| Princeton | 91 | +1 |
| RPI | 74 | 0 |
| St. Lawrence | 72 | -1 |
| Union | 96 | +1 |
| Vermont | 72 | -1 |
| Yale | 70 | -1 |
The third (+1 top 33%, 0 middle 33%, -1 bottom 33%) in returning % of Leading Defensemen points. Team-by-team breakdown here.
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|
RetD% | RetD |
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Brown |
25 | -1 |
| Clarkson | 69 | +1 |
| Colgate | 64 | 0 |
| Cornell | 77 | +1 |
| Dartmouth | 81 | +1 |
| Harvard | 50 | 0 |
| Princeton | 36 | -1 |
| RPI | 65 | +1 |
| St. Lawrence | 41 | -1 |
| Union | 57 | 0 |
| Vermont | 54 | 0 |
| Yale | 23 | -1 |
The third (+1 top 33%, 0 middle 33%, -1 bottom 33%) in returning % of Leading Goaltenders wins. Team-by-team breakdown here.
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|
RetG% | RetG |
|
Brown |
0 | -1 |
| Clarkson | 94 | 0 |
| Colgate | 82 | 0 |
| Cornell | 100 | +1 |
| Dartmouth | 100 | +1 |
| Harvard | 100 | +1 |
| Princeton | 100 | +1 |
| RPI | 5 | -1 |
| St. Lawrence | 100 | +1 |
| Union | 100 | +1 |
| Vermont | 100 | +1 |
| Yale | 100 | +1 |
Pred = (RS + PS) + (Prv3 + 1/2 + RetF + RetD + RetG)
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RS | PS | Prv3 | 1/2 | RetF | RetD | RetG | Pred |
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Brown |
9 | -1 | +1 | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 | 5 |
| Clarkson | 3 | +3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 6 |
| Colgate | 11 | -1 | 0 | +1 | +1 | 0 | 0 | 12 |
| Cornell | 10 | -1 | +1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | +1 | 12 |
| Dartmouth | 8 | -1 | +1 | 0 | +1 | +1 | +1 | 11 |
| Harvard | 6 | +2 | +1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 10 |
| Princeton | 0 | 0 | -1 | -1 | +1 | -1 | +1 | -1 |
| RPI | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | -1 | 7 |
| St. Lawrence | 2 | +1 | -1 | +1 | -1 | -1 | +1 | 2 |
| Union | 4 | -1 | -1 | +1 | +1 | 0 | +1 | 5 |
| Vermont | 1 | 0 | -1 | +1 | -1 | 0 | +1 | 1 |
| Yale | 5 | -1 | 0 | -1 | -1 | -1 | +1 | 2 |
Prv10 is a reversal (returning the largest number for first place) of the regular season Standing of the previous ten seasons, 1994-95 through 2003-04. Prv10 = (12 - Standing).
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Pct | Standing | Prv10 |
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Brown |
.422 | 11 | 1 |
| Clarkson | .661 | 1 | 11 |
| Colgate | .562 | 3 | 9 |
| Cornell | .624 | 2 | 10 |
| Dartmouth | .438 | 9 | 3 |
| Harvard | .523 | 5 | 7 |
| Princeton | .429 | 10 | 2 |
| RPI | .521 | 6 | 6 |
| St. Lawrence | .539 | 4 | 8 |
| Union | .361 | 12 | 0 |
| Vermont | .459 | 8 | 4 |
| Yale | .461 | 7 | 5 |
The standings prediction, TBRW, is the rank order of FPred.
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Pred | 3*Pred | Prv10 | FPred | TBRW |
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Brown |
5 | 15 | 1 | 16 | 7 |
| Clarkson | 6 | 18 | 11 | 29 | 5 |
| Colgate | 12 | 36 | 9 | 45 | 2 |
| Cornell | 12 | 36 | 10 | 46 | 1 |
| Dartmouth | 11 | 33 | 3 | 36 | 4 |
| Harvard | 10 | 30 | 7 | 37 | 3 |
| Princeton | -1 | -3 | 2 | -1 | 12 |
| RPI | 7 | 21 | 6 | 27 | 6 |
| St. Lawrence | 2 | 6 | 8 | 14 | 9 |
| Union | 5 | 15 | 0 | 15 | 8 |
| Vermont | 1 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 11 |
| Yale | 2 | 6 | 5 | 11 | 10 |