Never Apologize, Never Explain

Never Apologize, Never Explain, 2004

So, here's how we do it. Follow the links for detailed computations.

Theory...

First we take base values directly computed from last year's team performance:

RS	Regular season performance in previous season.
PS	Post-season performance in previous season.

Factored into these base values is a function of the following modifiers:

Prv3	Standing in total conference record in the three previous seasons.
1/2	Second-half improvement, previous regular season.
RetF	Returning % of Leading Forwards points.
RetD	Returning % of Leading Defensemen points.
RetG	Returning % of Leading Goaltenders wins.

Pred is derived by adding all the base values and modifiers together:

Pred = (RS + PS) + (Prv3 + 1/2 + RetF + RetD + RetG)

FPred, the basis for our final predictor, is derived by regressing Pred 25% back towards their conference standing of the previous ten seasons:

FPred = 3 * Pred + Prv10

Pred	Sum of all base values and modifiers.
Prv10	Standing in total conference record in the ten previous seasons.
FPred	Final predictor and basis for the TBRW? Prediction.

Our final prediction, TBRW, is the rank order of FPred.

TBRW	Predicted ranking.

The modifiers are computed for the present year, below.

... and Practice

RS

RS is a reversal (returning the largest number for first place) of the regular season Standing of 2002-03. RS = (12 - Standing).

Standing RS

Brown
5 7

Clarkson 7 5

Colgate 8 4

Cornell 1 11

Dartmouth 3 9

Harvard 2 10

Princeton 12 0

RPI 11 1

St. Lawrence 9 3

Union 6 6

Vermont 10 2

Yale 4 8

PS

The number of post-season upset series wins (+1) and losses (-1) in the 2002-03 playoffs. The consolation game is not counted.

2002-03 upsets:

RPI upset Union in the First Round.
Vermont upset Clarkson in the First Round.
Brown upset Yale in the QF.

PS

Brown
+1

Clarkson -1

Colgate 0

Cornell 0

Dartmouth 0

Harvard 0

Princeton 0

RPI +1

St. Lawrence 0

Union -1

Vermont +1

Yale -1

The third (+1 top 33%, 0 middle 33%, -1 bottom 33%) in conference winning percentage (Pct) for the past three seasons (2000-01 through 2002-03): the seasons in which the current returning classes have played.

	Pct	Rank	Prv3
Brown	.409	10	-1
Clarkson	.606	3	+1
Colgate	.455	7	0
Cornell	.758	1	+1
Dartmouth	.553	4	+1
Harvard	.636	2	+1
Princeton	.379	11	-1
RPI	.439	9	-1
St. Lawrence	.500	6	0
Union	.447	8	0
Vermont	.311	12	-1
Yale	.508	5	0

1/2

The third (+1 top 33%, 0 middle 33%, -1 bottom 33%) in improvement in points gained in the second half of the RS (games 12-22) over the first half (games 1-11), last season (2002-03).

	Pts Total	Pts 12-22	Pts 1-11	Pts Diff	1/2
Brown	24	13	11	+2	+1
Clarkson	21	8	13	-5	-1
Colgate	21	14	7	+7	+1
Cornell	39	19	20	-1	0
Dartmouth	26	14	12	+2	+1
Harvard	35	17	18	-1	0
Princeton	6	2	4	-2	-1
RPI	11	5	6	-1	0
St. Lawrence	17	9	8	+1	0
Union	22	12	10	+2	+1
Vermont	16	6	10	-4	-1
Yale	26	12	14	-2	-1

RetF

The third (+1 top 33%, 0 middle 33%, -1 bottom 33%) in returning % of Leading Forwards points. Team-by-team breakdown here.

	RetF%	RetF
Brown	100	+1
Clarkson	74	0
Colgate	57	-1
Cornell	62	-1
Dartmouth	77	+1
Harvard	64	-1
Princeton	88	+1
RPI	74	0
St. Lawrence	72	0
Union	68	0
Vermont	81	+1
Yale	57	-1

RetD

The third (+1 top 33%, 0 middle 33%, -1 bottom 33%) in returning % of Leading Defensemen points. Team-by-team breakdown here.

	RetD%	RetD
Brown	90	+1
Clarkson	15	-1
Colgate	92	+1
Cornell	33	-1
Dartmouth	31	-1
Harvard	100	+1
Princeton	77	0
RPI	74	0
St. Lawrence	100	+1
Union	52	-1
Vermont	64	0
Yale	72	0

RetG

The third (+1 top 33%, 0 middle 33%, -1 bottom 33%) in returning % of Leading Goaltenders wins. Team-by-team breakdown here.

	RetG%	RetG
Brown	100	+0.5
Clarkson	50	- 1.0
Colgate	100	+0.5
Cornell	7	- 1.0
Dartmouth	15	- 1.0
Harvard	100	+0.5
Princeton	100	+0.5
RPI	100	+0.5
St. Lawrence	100	+0.5
Union	100	+0.5
Vermont	15	- 1.0
Yale	100	+0.5

Putting it All Together

Pred

Pred = (RS + PS) + (Prv3 + 1/2 + RetF + RetD + RetG)

	RS	PS	Prv3	1/2	RetF	RetD	RetG	Pred
Brown	7	+1	-1	+1	+1	+1	+0.5	10.5
Clarkson	5	-1	+1	-1	0	-1	- 1.0	2.0
Colgate	4	0	0	+1	-1	+1	+0.5	5.5
Cornell	11	0	+1	0	-1	-1	- 1.0	9.0
Dartmouth	9	0	+1	+1	+1	-1	- 1.0	10.0
Harvard	10	0	+1	0	-1	+1	+0.5	11.5
Princeton	0	0	-1	-1	+1	0	+0.5	- 0.5
RPI	1	+1	-1	0	0	0	+0.5	1.5
St. Lawrence	3	0	0	0	0	+1	+0.5	4.5
Union	6	-1	0	+1	0	-1	+0.5	5.5
Vermont	2	+1	-1	-1	+1	0	- 1.0	1.0
Yale	8	-1	0	-1	-1	0	+0.5	5.5

Prv10

Prv10 is a reversal (returning the largest number for first place) of the regular season Standing of the previous ten seasons, 1993-94 through 2002-03. Prv10 = (12 - Standing).

	Pct	Standing	Prv10
Brown	.420	10	2.0
Clarkson	.688	1	11.0
Colgate	.544	4	8.0
Cornell	.601	2	10.0
Dartmouth	.397	11	1.0
Harvard	.555	3	9.0
Princeton	.441	8(t)	3.5
RPI	.523	6	6.0
St. Lawrence	.537	5	7.0
Union	.370	12	0.0
Vermont	.485	7	5.0
Yale	.441	8(t)	3.5

FPred = (3 * Pred + Prv10).

The standings prediction, TBRW, is the rank order of FPred.

	Pred	*3Pred**	Prv10	FPred	TBRW
Brown	10.5	31.5	2.0	33.5	3
Clarkson	2.0	6.0	11.0	17.0	8
Colgate	5.5	16.5	8.0	24.5	5
Cornell	9.0	27.0	10.0	37.0	2
Dartmouth	10.0	30.0	1.0	31.0	4
Harvard	11.5	34.5	9.0	43.5	1
Princeton	- 0.5	- 1.5	3.5	2.0	12
RPI	1.5	4.5	6.0	10.5	10
St. Lawrence	4.5	13.5	7.0	20.5	6
Union	5.5	16.5	0.0	16.5	9
Vermont	1.0	3.0	5.0	8.0	11
Yale	5.5	16.5	3.5	20.0	7