## Pred

### Predicted Conference Finish (Old Measure)

The seven statistics that go into the prediction score are now added such that
the sum should reflect each team�s league points in the coming season. This requires
a little playful mathematics, as described below. For each team, first we compute
AvgMod, the average of the five percentage modifiers. The mean of AvgMod is itself
used in calculating an adjustment, AdjMod, which, when added to RS and PS produces
the predictor of conference points, Pred.
For the hardcore types:

AvgMod = (5Pct + 1/2 + RetG + RetD + RetM) / 5
AdjMod = 44 * (AvgMod - MEAN[AvgMod])
Pred = AdjMod + RS + PS

In the table below,MEAN[AvgMod] = .539

**
Team 5Pct 1/2 RetG RetD RetM AvgMod AdjMod RS PS Pred Team
Brown .423 -.136 .747 1.000 1.000 .607 3 15 0 18 Brown
Clarkson .768 .182 .744 .683 1.000 .675 6 36 0 42 Clarkson
Colgate .568 .000 .780 .720 .999 .613 3 26 1 30 Colgate
Cornell .555 -.227 .802 .834 1.000 .593 2 21 0 23 Cornell
Dartmouth .332 .000 .578 .407 1.000 .463 -3 14 0 11 Dartmouth
Harvard .468 .364 .670 .722 1.000 .645 5 18 0 23 Harvard
Princeton .482 -.318 .487 .634 .682 .393 -6 27 0 21 Princeton
RPI .545 -.273 .691 .815 1.000 .556 1 28 0 29 RPI
SLU .541 -.045 .691 1.000 .066 .450 -4 33 0 29 SLU
Union .305 -.091 .837 .619 .525 .439 -4 4 0 0 Union
Vermont .564 .091 .709 .851 .678 .579 2 16 0 18 Vermont
Yale .450 .182 .791 .715 .131 .454 -4 26 -1 21 Yale
Sum 6.001 -.273 8.527 9.002 9.080 6.468 0 264 0 264
Mean .500 -.023 .711 .750 .757 .539 0 22 0 22
**

**
Our former ECAC predictor, Pred, has Cornell as a middle of the pack team this
coming year:
**