TBRW Predictions: 1998

And now, the TBRW? prognostication system turns its attention to this year's ECAC. Without further ado, let's put our cards on the table:

Order	Team       		Pts
 1	Clarkson		 39
 2	RPI			 35
 3	Cornell			 28
 4	Princeton		 26
 5	Harvard			 24
 6	Union			 22
 7	Colgate			 21
 8	Vermont			 18
 9	Yale			 17
10	Brown			 14
11	Dartmouth		 11
12	St. Lawrence	 	  9

"Never Apologize, Never Explain"

The TBRW? predictions are based on each team's previous year's performance, modified by off-season roster changes.

Each team starts with its previous regular season standing RS.

The number of post-season upset wins or losses PS is then added.

Finally, added to this score is a function of the following modifiers:

Modifiers

5pct Conference % in 5 seasons previous to past season.
1/2 Second-half improvement in previous regular season.
RetG % of previous season's goals scored returning for current season.
RetD % of previous season's defenseman games played returning for current season.
RetM % of previous season's goaltender minutes played returning for current season.

The coefficient multiplier for the sum of the modifiers helps balance the effects of roster changes and also generates Pred, the final score which signifies the number of points a team should finish with.