In which, the TBRW? prognostication system, lately so successful, turns its attention to this year�s ECAC.
Place Team 1 Vermont 2 Clarkson 3 Cornell 4 St. Lawrence 5 Colgate 6 Harvard 7 Dartmouth 8 Brown 9 Union 10 Princeton 11 RPI 12 Yale
The TBRW? predictions are based on each team�s previous year�s performance, modified by off-season roster changes. In the past, we ranked teams within the conference and gave them a +1 or -1 offset for several modifying values. This time around, inspired no doubt by our atrocious performance last year, we�ll stick with the facts, using the raw values of the statistics themselves, rather than artificially dividing them into ranked thirds.
Each team receives a base score reflecting its previous regular season standing -- RS. The number of post-season upset wins or losses PS is then added to this base score.
Finally, added to this score is a function of the following modifiers:
| Modifier | Description |
|---|---|
| 5 pct | Conference winning percentage in 5 seasons previous to past season. |
| 1/2 | Second-half improvement, previous regular season. |
| RetG | Percentage of previous season�s goals scored returning for current season. |
| RetD | Percentage of previous season�s defenseman games played returning for current season. |
| RetM | Percentage of previous season�s goaltender minutes played returning for current season. |
The coefficient multiplier for the sum of the modifiers helps balance the effects of roster changes and also generates a final score which signifies the number of points a team should finish with.