TBRW Predictions: 1996

And now, the TBRW? prognostication system turns its attention to this year�s ECAC.

Without further ado, let's put our cards on the table:

				  Pred96
 1	Clarkson		30
 2	Brown			28
 3	Colgate			27
	Vermont			27
 5	St. Lawrence	26
 6	Cornell			25
 7	Harvard			24
	RPI				24
 9	Princeton		23
10	Dartmouth		14
11	Union			12
12	Yale			 4

"Never Apologize, Never Explain"

The TBRW? predictions are based on each team�s previous year�s performance, modified by off-season roster changes.

Each team starts with its previous regular season standing RS.

The number of post-season upset wins or losses PS is then added.

Finally, added to this score is a function of the following modifiers:

Modifiers


5pct	Conference winning percentage in 5 seasons previous to past season.
1/2	Second-half improvement, previous regular season.
RetG	Percentage of previous season�s goals scored returning for current season.
RetD	Percentage of previous season�s defenseman games played returning for current season.
RetM	Percentage of previous season�s goaltender minutes played returning for current season.

The coefficient multiplier for the sum of the modifiers helps balance the effects of roster changes and also generates Pred, the final score which signifies the number of points a team should finish with.