## Never Apologize, Never Explain

First we take base values directly computed from last year's team performance:

 RS Regular season performance in prior season PS Post-season performance in prior season

Factored into these base values is a function of the following modifiers (the calculation is shown below):

 Imp Second-half improvement in prior season Ret Returning players from prior season

### RS

RS = Prior regular season's points, or percentage multiplied by 44 if a team has not played 22 games.

 RS Brown 10 Clarkson 20 Colgate 17 Cornell 29 Dartmouth 24 Harvard 24 Princeton 28 Quinnipiac 21 RPI 13 St. Lawrence 26 Union 20 Yale 32

### PS

The number of upset advances (+1) or eliminations (-1) in the previous season's ECAC playoffs, multipled by 2.  The consolation game is ignored.

• Colgate upset Clarkson in the QF.
• Cornell upset Union in the QF.
 PS Brown +2 Clarkson 0 Colgate 0 Cornell 0 Dartmouth -2 Harvard -2 Princeton 0 Quinnipiac 0 RPI +2 St. Lawrence 0 Union 0 Yale 0

### Imp

One-half (rounded down) of the difference in points gained in the second half (games 12-22) minus the first half (games 1-11) of the prior ECAC regular season.

 Pts G 12-22 G 1-11 Diff Imp Brown 10 5 5 0 0 Clarkson 20 11 9 +2 +1 Colgate 17 12 5 +7 +3 Cornell 29 11 18 -7 -3 Dartmouth 24 10 14 -4 -2 Harvard 24 14 10 +4 +2 Princeton 28 12 16 -4 -2 Quinnipiac 21 7 14 -7 -3 RPI 13 4 9 -5 -2 St. Lawrence 26 18 8 +10 +5 Union 20 10 10 0 0 Yale 32 17 15 +2 +1

### Ret

This metric is based on returning % of last year's players:

• F%: returning % of points of top 9 scoring forwards
• D%: returning % of points of top 4 scoring defensemen
• G%: returning % of minutes of all goalies

We sum these three stats and then multiply by 7 to scale the percentages to a metric comparable to the other season points metrics. (We chose 7 by the following arbitrary logic. The difference between the theoretical max and min of the sum of the three stats is 3.00. Multiplying by 7 gives a theoretical maximum spread of 21 points -- just barely shy of one-half of an ECAC season. That seemed about right. Note that in practice the real spread will be around 1.00, or 7 points -- very close to the max spread of 6 points from the former RetF, RetD and RetG stats.)

• Ret: 7 x (F% + D% + G%)

The team breakdowns are shown here.

All of last year's seniors are assumed non-returning. This year, no players who might qualify by these categories are known to be non-returning (this is highly unusual).

 F% D% G% Ret Brown .50 .82 .94 16 Clarkson .70 .55 1.00 16 Colgate .84 .11 1.00 14 Cornell .69 .81 1.00 18 Dartmouth .81 1.00 .97 19 Harvard .75 .80 1.00 18 Princeton .61 1.00 .98 18 Quinnipiac .45 .37 .52 9 RPI .79 1.00 .39 15 St. Lawrence .58 .00 1.00 11 Union .83 .33 1.00 15 Yale .92 1.00 .29 16

## Putting it All Together

### Ned

Ned = RS + PS + Imp + Ret

The predicted finish is the rank-order of Ned. Tie-breakers go in order of the stats: first RS, then PS, then Imp.

 RS PS Imp Ret Ned Rank Brown 10 +2 0 16 28 11 Clarkson 20 0 +1 16 37 7 Colgate 17 0 +3 14 34 9 Cornell 29 0 -3 18 44 2 Dartmouth 24 -2 -2 19 39 6 Harvard 24 -2 +2 18 42 5 Princeton 28 0 -2 18 44 3 Quinnipiac 21 0 -3 9 27 12 RPI 13 +2 -2 15 28 10 St. Lawrence 26 0 +5 11 42 4 Union 20 0 0 15 35 8 Yale 32 0 +1 16 49 1